In the realm of Major League Baseball (MLB) betting, knowledge of key metrics is essential for making informed wagers. Among these metrics, MLB implied runs have gained prominence, providing valuable insights into a team's expected scoring output.
In this comprehensive guide, we will explore MLB implied runs, how they are calculated, and their influence on the player props betting market. By understanding implied runs and their impact on player props, you can gain a competitive edge in your MLB betting strategies.
MLB implied runs represent the projected number of runs that a team is expected to score in a game, derived from betting odds. This metric considers factors such as starting pitchers, offensive and defensive performance, ballpark characteristics, weather conditions, and more.
Implied runs provide a numerical estimation of a team's offensive potential.
Using the below example of the White Sox and Angels, let's calculate the implied runs.
In this example, the total is 8.5 for the game, with the Angels at -135 and the Sox are +115.
Using that example, here is how you calculate implied runs for each team use the formula (ML/(ML-100) x run total for the favorite and (100/(ML+100) x run total for the underdog.
Angels calculation: (-135/(-135-100) = 0.575. Multiply it by 8.5 and you get a 4.89 implied run total.
White Sox calculation: (100/(115+100) = 0.465. Multiply it by 8.5 and you get a 3.953 implied run total.
When you add them two together, you get 8.843 runs, meaning the over would be a more attractive bet to the sharp bettor.
That's just one output to take from the Angels vs White Sox example. You can also examine the player props matchups individually as well.
As you can imagine, there are multiple factors influencing implied runs, including:
Starting Pitchers: The quality and performance of starting pitchers significantly impact implied runs. Top-tier pitchers generally result in lower implied runs, while weaker pitchers may lead to higher implied runs.
Offense and Defense: A team's offensive and defensive capabilities play a crucial role in determining implied runs. Teams with potent offenses and solid defenses tend to have higher implied runs.
Ballpark Factors: Each MLB ballpark possesses unique characteristics that affect scoring. Dimensions, altitude, wind patterns, and playing surface are factors that influence implied runs.
Weather Conditions: Weather conditions such as wind direction and speed, temperature, and humidity can impact the scoring environment, resulting in adjustments to implied runs.
Lineup Strength: The composition and quality of a team's lineup, including injuries or absences, can influence their offensive potential and subsequently affect implied runs.
Implied runs provide valuable information for MLB bettors, aiding in informed betting decisions. Here's how you can utilize implied runs effectively:
Comparing Implied Runs and Actual Runs: Comparing implied runs with actual runs scored in previous games allows for identifying discrepancies and potential value opportunities. If a team consistently outperforms its implied runs, it might indicate an undervalued offense.
Evaluating Pitching Matchups: Implied runs help assess the strength of pitching matchups. A low implied run total for an opposing team may suggest a favorable pitching matchup for a specific team. This information can be valuable for moneyline or run line bets.
Assessing Offensive Potential: Implied runs provide insights into a team's offensive potential for a specific game. Analyzing implied runs alongside offensive statistics such as team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage helps gauge a team's scoring ability.
Identifying Over/Under Betting Opportunities: Implied runs assist in determining whether a game is likely to have a high-scoring or low-scoring outcome. Comparing the implied run total with the set over/under line can help identify potential value in the over or under wager.
Implied runs also have a significant impact on the player props betting market. Player props focus on individual player performances within a game, offering opportunities to bet on specific player achievements such as hits, home runs, strikeouts, or runs scored.
Implied runs can affect player props betting in the following ways:
Scoring Environment: Implied runs provide insights into the expected offensive output of a team. A higher implied run total suggests a favorable scoring environment, increasing the likelihood of players having more opportunities to contribute and potentially surpass their prop benchmarks.
Run Production: Implied runs directly influence the number of runs a team is expected to score. Players batting at the top of the lineup or in RBI-producing spots are more likely to have increased opportunities for driving in runs, making them potential targets for prop bets related to RBIs or runs scored.
Pitching Matchups: Implied runs help evaluate pitching matchups, which can impact player props. A weak opposing pitcher might present favorable conditions for a batter to excel, increasing the potential for hitting-related props such as hits or home runs.
Bullpen Strength: Implied runs also indirectly affect player props by considering the quality of a team's bullpen. A weaker bullpen may result in extended opportunities for hitters to face less formidable relief pitchers, potentially impacting their performance and prop outcomes.
When utilizing implied runs for player props, consider the following strategies:
a. Align with High-Scoring Teams: Identify teams with high implied run totals as they are more likely to provide ample opportunities for players to contribute to offensive production. Target players on these teams for props such as runs scored or RBIs.
b. Analyze Batter-Pitcher Matchups: Evaluate individual batter-pitcher matchups within the context of implied runs. If a hitter has a history of success against a particular pitcher, it could present an advantageous opportunity for props like hits or home runs.
c. Consider Positional Factors: Assess how implied runs and lineup positions correlate for specific positions. For example, leadoff hitters might have increased opportunities to accumulate hits and runs, while power hitters in RBI-producing spots might be suitable for prop bets related to RBIs or home runs.
d. Account for Bullpen Strength: Factor in the quality of both teams' bullpens when assessing player props. A strong bullpen might limit a hitter's opportunities late in the game, potentially affecting their performance and corresponding prop outcomes.
While implied runs and player props provide valuable insights, several limitations and considerations exist. Implied runs are derived from betting odds and reflect the collective opinions of sportsbooks and the betting market. They do not guarantee precise predictions of individual player performances.
Other variables, such as in-game adjustments, player injuries, managerial decisions, or unforeseen circumstances, can significantly impact player props. Additionally, player props are influenced by factors beyond implied runs, including recent form, historical performance, and situational variables.
It is crucial to conduct comprehensive research, including analyzing player-specific statistics, recent trends, and historical data, in conjunction with implied runs when making player props bets. This holistic approach enhances the understanding of individual player dynamics and maximizes the chances of making informed wagering decisions.
To illustrate the practical application of implied runs in player props betting, let's consider a case study: Brewers visiting Justin Verlander and the Mets in June 2023.
The total is 8.5, the Mets are -184 and the Brewers are +154.
From the dominant moneyline, you can see that the Mets will have a high implied run total, indicating a favorable scoring environment.
You analyze the matchup and identify a player on the Mets who excels against the Colin Rea, based on historical data. You can use a plethora of different sources, including Swish Analytics.
This presents an opportunity to consider player props such as hits or RBIs for that particular player, whether its Tommy Pham, Brandon Nimmo or Jeff McNeil.
Conversely, the Brewers look like they are in for a tough night against Verlander.
You might explore player props related to Verlander strikeouts, or unders for hits and RBIs for Brewers hitters.
Specifically, if the image is big enough, look at the record of Jesse Winker (.150) with six strikeouts in 20 at bats:
Knowing the Brewers have a low implied run line and Verlander has Winker's measure, you may look for all of the Winker lines and target under bets.
MLB implied runs provide valuable insights into a team's expected scoring output, influencing both betting decisions and player props markets.
Understanding how implied runs impact player props allows bettors to make more informed choices when wagering on individual player performances. By aligning with high-scoring teams, assessing batter-pitcher matchups, considering positional factors, and accounting for bullpen strength, bettors can optimize their player props strategies.
However, it is essential to acknowledge the limitations of implied runs and conduct thorough research to make well-rounded player props bets in the ever-evolving landscape of MLB betting.
