Draftkings has created a new Home run promo called Moonshot Monday and it is incredible. Draftkings is the leader in the industry and promos like this are exactly why. I posted Trent Grisham (NYY) +400 and will dive into the EV of that choice and why I picked him below. 

Terms of the promo: People have different dollar versions of this but the min. stake = payout per home run in all of them so percentage wise it will be the same for any version. We will use the $10 (lowest) for this example. 

Promo: Bet $10 on a home run line in any game and get $10 towards a free bet per home run hit in that game. 

When considering who to take and what the EV of the bet is we have 2 factors: 1) How many home runs we expect in the game and 2) The EV of the home run line itself. 

‍EV of Grisham: The EV of the home run line itself is about -5%. So the expected loss on that portion of the bet is about $0.50 on a $10 bet. With many promos we do, it is beneficial to take someone with low home run odds (if the bet needs to win like a King of the Diamond to unlock the promo rewards) or high home run odds (if the bet needs to lose like a no sweat to unlock the promo rewards) but that is not really a consideration for this promo. 

‍Expected number of free bets / why this game?: The teams are 1st and 4th in home runs, the game total is the highest of the day (10) and neither pitcher is particularly strong. This should be the highest expected home run line of the day. I am going to guess the over/ under home runs in this game would be about 2.5. The EV of 2.5 home runs means $25 in free bets expected which can be expected to be converted to around $20. 

Net EV:

The EV of the home run wager is -$0.50 while the EV of the free bets from the promo itself are about $20 making the EV of the $10 version of this promotion $19.5. This means the promo has a 195% EV in what is one of the best promotions I have ever seen!

One note - I could have posted this at the same odds (or lower) earlier but waited for the Yankees lineup to come out because I was concerned with the fact it was the last game of the day and we could miss out on the token entirely if Judge was out of the lineup for whatever reason. Grisham was also a good backup option so I had that to lean on. Both actually ended up going up from 205 to 215 and 370 to 400 respectively . Judge moved soon after I posted in discord so ended up going with Grisham which was just as good of a play. 
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